There's this phrase that goes around: when you're trying to predict the impact of technology, "it will take twice as long as you predict to become mainstream, but when it does, the impact will be twice as big than you originally anticipated".
I'm re-reading GamesIndustry's Playstation 3 'reminder' piece, and in reaction to this bit:
Reeves also confirmed that the company is investigating the
possibility of electronic distribution of content over broadband for
its next generation system - describing the pursuit of this as the
"ultimate goal" for the PlayStation 3, and stating that Sony hopes to
see always-on network access and viable broadband distribution in place
when the PS3 becomes available in 2006.
"It's going to have to be 2 or 3MB, something like that," he
said, speaking about connection sizes - which are currently generally
at 512k (0.5MB) in most UK broadband-enabled homes. "Ken [Kutaragi]'s
even talking about 30MB! And when it gets to that, then it is broadband
distribution, and people then can just download whatever game they
want. But it's got to be secure, and that's where DNAS [Sony's online
security protocol] comes in."
There are something like 6 million UK homes with broadband now, up from 2 million last year. Next year we get 18mbit broadband, this year's already seen 8mbit from Bulldog and co. And here we are, thinking ten years into the future, for games, television, media consumption...
Both the Playstation 3 (soon to be confirmed, of course!) and XBox 360 allow content download. Processing. Storage. The XBox will use mostly Internet Protocol(s). DRM, sure, but pretty standard stuff, by all accounts. The PS3 will use its own proprietary chip (Cell), probably proprietary formats for content, and now maybe even a proprietary online security protocol.
My usual reaction to this is, 'oh yes, SonyNet'. Multiple nets are, I'm sure, part of our future. SonyNet, .net, AOLNet, hell.. ToysRUsNet for kids, why not. But will closed nets survive?
There will be millions of customers for the PS3. XBox 360 has a bit of a head start, but probably not enough to worry Sony (although pride does come before a fall, and the new machine screams "mainstream"). Both consoles will encourage us to purchase movies, games, content.. maybe even television and consumables and services via their networks and their box under the TV.
So what will happen - will the desire for free, moveable, useful content just be weaned out of our brains by time and technology, or will we gravitate towards the machines and networks that give us more freedom?