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March 08, 2005


Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Alice

Nice commentary by Tim Walsh, but the stats quoted are hopelessly out of date. The picture is MUCH more BRIGHT for mobile phones/cellular phones and mobile data.

Deutsche Bank is one of the major institutions releasing a count of handsets by technology. Their Oct 29 2004 report has this count of data-enabled handsets (cumulative numbers) on so-called 2.5G and 3G technologies (GPRS, EDGE, W-CDMA, CDMA2000 1x, and CDMA2000 EV-DO):

2003 total shipped 234 M, world cumulative 320 M
2004 total shipped 383 M, world cumulative 703 M
2005 estimate ship 511 M, world cumulative 1.2 B

In other words by end of last year almost half of the global population of 1.6 cellular phones were already advanced data-enabled (of course over 90% of them can handle simple data like SMS text messaging, mobile commerce payments, data and news alerts, etc) and by the end of this year two thirds of the world's cellphones will be data-enabled.

By the way, I think Tim Walsh had some old data and he perhaps mistakenly thought the yearly shipped numbers were the global cumulative numbers. Yes, his numbers are incredibly impressive. Except that the truth is MUCH MORE remarkable..

If you thought this was a big market, think again. It is literally the world's biggest market. The most prevalent digital connection device on the globe is the mobile phone, EVERY economically viable person on the globe carried a mobile phone. By the end of 2005 more people will have access to the internet via a mobile phone than there are fixed internet access points. Already since 2003 there have been more people using SMS text messaging than use e-mail.

I discussed these trends already in my second book - the only business book on advanced mobile telecoms - m-Profits, which was a bestseller in 2003. My fourth book, Communities Dominate Brands, carries on these themes and explains very deeply the opportunities for developers among gamers, bloggers, mobile phone swarms, etc. See more about the book including excertps at the website for the book at www.futuretext.com.

Dominate !

Tomi Ahonen / HatRat :-)

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